Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Low interest rate regime

Five year US Treasury yield curve reached it's lowest since the beginning of the year:This is good news from different counts:
  • The borrowing costs are lower and hence the US govt can push for more stimulus much needed for the current economy
  • The possibility of future hyperinflation seems low, at least that gathered from the view of bondholders
  • There isn't any deteriorating confidence on US' capability to repay its debt. There aren't bond vigilantes as people fear, but there are rather bond market deficit cheerleaders!

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Household finances yet to recover

The financial obligation ratio published by US fed shows that the homeowners are still paying a higher than normal fraction of their income on mortgage obligations.
After reaching its peaking in Q1 2008 at 11.35% this number is slowly dropping, but it hasn't yet reached the comfortable 9-10% range. This number does not totally capture the extend of indebtedness of homeowner during the housing bubble, as most of the loans had teaser rates for the first few years and ample provisions for refinancing. But still this is a good enough indication that it will take a few more years before the household finances reach their stable state.